The Global Climate Change Presidency

The Global Climate Change Presidency

The next U.S. President could have significant impact on global climate change, yet Senator Obama’s policy is more about energy. Senator McCain’s policy addresses the larger scope of global climate change.

My personal research is relevant to the presidential candidates’ energy and climate change policies, because the two candidates seem to have vastly different understandings of climate change and potential underlying causes of change. (The research is on beliefs about climate change and I am looking for always looking for additional participants: http://www.geocities.com/dawagnersjca/short.html .) Advertising not withstanding, I’ve been thinking a great deal about global warming.

Some voters are not convinced that global warming is occurring. Others believe strongly that global warming is occurring. Those who believe strongly in global warming are not in agreement about the cause. Some attribute the warming to human activity (i.e., anthropogenic). Still others who believe in global warming are split among a variety natural causes, such as solar radiation due to sunspots, etc.

The Obama campaign has no clearly stated policy on global warming; There is no discernable action plan relative to what the Obama / Biden ticket will do to tackle this extremely important issue. Instead, Obama’s energy plan makes vague reference to reducing greenhouse gases.

On the other hand, the McCain campaign has published a clear statement on climate change policy, albeit brief. Like the Obama plan, the McCain plan presupposes that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. Unlike Obama, McCain provides extensive detail about how a market-based cap and trade policy will encourage an overall lowering of greenhouse gases.

Double-fault: Obama. Obama’s energy policy provides easy-to-understand bullet points that are absent necessary detail, implying that the candidate and his advisors have not really done considerable thinking about how to address global climate change. Moreover, the lack of detail combined with the prominence of the term green house gas emissions (as the only cause of global warming) in the energy policy seems to indicate that no further scientific inquiry will drive the Obama plan.

Advantage: McCain. McCain’s climate policy is much more detailed and seeks scientific answers for setting acceptable levels of greenhouse gases. Presumably, a science-based approach would include a development of an extensive understanding of the degree to which greenhouse gases have played and will continue to play a role in global climate change. Both candidates’ websites offer press releases with praises of their respective policies relative to climate change, but only Senator McCain has articulated a point of departure for building a comprehensive solution to the problem of global climate change.

References

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/1F8B2869-689E-4E79-BFB4-C20CF1A47297.htm

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes

• Misleading Graphs
• Biased Data
• No Margin of Error [reported]
• Non-random Samples
• Missing Sample Sizes (i.e., not reported)
• Misinterpreted Correlations
• Confounding Variables (i.e., outside influences not discussed)
• Botched Numbers
• Selectively Reporting Results
• The Almighty Anecdote
  

Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

• Target Population Well Defined
• Sample Matches the Target Population
• Sample is Randomly Selected
• Sample Size is Large Enough
• Good Follow-Up Minimizes Non-Response
• Type of Survey Used is Appropriate
• Questions are Well Worded
• Survey is Properly Timed
• Survey Personnel are Well Trained
• Survey Answers the Original Question
  

Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.