Friday, November 7, 2008

Mastering Basic Statistics

Trust me. You can do statistical analysis. The basics of statistics can be mastered... Forget about those mind-numbing textbooks for a second. Descriptive Statistics are all about what the data looks like. Inferential Statistics are all about whether two sets of data are different or if two sets of data have a relationship.

Descriptive Statistics are a summary of what the sample data looks like, such as the measure of central tendency (e.g., mean for interval data) and measures of dispersion (e.b., standard deviation (SD) for interval data). Data that is dispersed about a mean like the bell-shape is normally distributed (i.e., 68.26%in 1 SD, 95.44% in 2 SD, 99.7% in 3 SD). The randomly drawn sample is best but rarely possible, so a non-random or convenience sample can be used with justification.

When compiling descriptive statistics, you need to know whether the sample data (i.e., level of measurement) is nominal (yes, no, or a label), ordinal (in some kind of order such as doneness of meat: rare, medium rare, medium, or well done) or a number that has order and the value means something (such as "that movie is an 8 on a scale of 10"). You also need to know the unit of analysis, such as the individual, group, organization, or society. Descriptive Statistics tell us what Inferential Statistics we can safely use to draw conclusions.

Inferential Statistics are how we make a decision about the POPULATION guided by what the Descriptive Statistics have told us about the SAMPLE data using probability theory. There are two types of decisions: Measures of Difference and Measures of Association. Measures of Difference (z, t, F, etc.) test differences between a number and sample, two samples or more than two samples. Measures of Association (r, correlation, regression) test whether variables move together and possibly whether there is some causal relationship. (Causal relationships are tricky to prove so be careful about saying X causes Y.)

When applying Inferential Statistics, the types of measures of difference or measures of association that can be used are governed by the level of measurement, the number of samples you are comparing, whether the sample is random/independent, and if the data is tightly dispersed about the mean like the normal distribution. When you are comparing samples, you have to make sure that the unit of analysis in each sample aligns with the other samples and your research question. (e.g., students in a classroom vs. a classroom of students, such as can a single student be judged by being in a particular class or should the particular class be judged by a single student.) Test statistics are calculated from sample data and critical values are looked up on a distribution (probability) table, and you compare these two in hypothesis testing. If you see a low p value, that is good.

All good quantitative research uses variations of the above instances to boil the research question down to a testable hypothesis for a large sample for descriptive, exploratory, or causal/experimental research. All good research articles explain how construct validity (i.e., theory or practical problem), external validity (i.e., how and why the sample was chosen), internal validity (i.e., why they think they saw is what they saw) and conclusion validity (i.e., how the descriptive and inferential statistics support our discussion) are achieved. A sample size of one in qualitative research might use ethnography, action research or other methods to build a case study or foundation for quantitative research.

That's it. That's about all a business manager or MBA must know about statistics. Of course, there is a lot more that you could know, but the basics can be mastered.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Broadcast News Media Research Indicated Bias for Senator Barack Obama

A broadcast news media study by the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University found that coverage during the 2008 U.S. Presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama was 65% positive, but coverage of Senator John McCain was only 36% positive.

According to the study by researchers at George Mason University, there was a documented media bias for Obama and against McCain. Did the bias influence voters? I don't know. Was the study relevant news that was largely ignored. I don't know.

The link below has the details. Judge for yourselves...

Source: http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_10_30_08.htm

Additional References: Pew Charitable Trust Study of Print Media: "The media coverage of the race for president has not so much cast Barack Obama in a favorable light as it has portrayed John McCain in a substantially negative one, according to a new study of the media since the two national political conventions ended."

Source: http://journalism.org/node/13307

References

The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_10_30_08.htm

Pew Charitable Trusts Excellence in Journalism, http://journalism.org/node/13307

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

The importance of the public opinion survey / poll has gained prominence in presidential races, because of the economy and efficiency of mass opinion polling over the telephone and the Internet. For example, with a relatively small sample size of just under 400 randomly selected participants one can gain a reasonable understanding of the opinions of up to 1,000,000 persons, within a margin of error. The miracle of statistical inference.

A sample of approximately 1,500 randomly drawn individuals may be projectable across the entire nation. The implications are clear. An unscrupulous candidate, who strongly desires to be elected, may communicate only those messages that increase his/her favorable ratings in the polls. On the other hand, a candidate with integrity may use the pollster to determine those messages springing from his/her political ideology that need fine tuning to appeal to the largest group of voters.

Appealing to the largest group of voters is similar in concept to the responsiveness that all politicians in a majoritarian form of democracy must face. Public opinion polling should be used only by politicians and news organizations to gain a better understanding of their audience, but polls alone should not be considered news and should not be reported in a way that will shape public opinion. Is that too much to ask? Is that unrealistic? Perhaps.

In sum, honest and disingenuous politicians alike, and news organizations with a specific agenda, may find the pollster an indispensable member of the team, but their is a societal cost.

Reference

Janda, K., Berry, J.M., & Goldman, J. (1995) The challenge of democracy: Government in America, (4th Ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Global Climate Change Presidency

The Global Climate Change Presidency

The next U.S. President could have significant impact on global climate change, yet Senator Obama’s policy is more about energy. Senator McCain’s policy addresses the larger scope of global climate change.

My personal research is relevant to the presidential candidates’ energy and climate change policies, because the two candidates seem to have vastly different understandings of climate change and potential underlying causes of change. (The research is on beliefs about climate change and I am looking for always looking for additional participants: http://www.geocities.com/dawagnersjca/short.html .) Advertising not withstanding, I’ve been thinking a great deal about global warming.

Some voters are not convinced that global warming is occurring. Others believe strongly that global warming is occurring. Those who believe strongly in global warming are not in agreement about the cause. Some attribute the warming to human activity (i.e., anthropogenic). Still others who believe in global warming are split among a variety natural causes, such as solar radiation due to sunspots, etc.

The Obama campaign has no clearly stated policy on global warming; There is no discernable action plan relative to what the Obama / Biden ticket will do to tackle this extremely important issue. Instead, Obama’s energy plan makes vague reference to reducing greenhouse gases.

On the other hand, the McCain campaign has published a clear statement on climate change policy, albeit brief. Like the Obama plan, the McCain plan presupposes that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. Unlike Obama, McCain provides extensive detail about how a market-based cap and trade policy will encourage an overall lowering of greenhouse gases.

Double-fault: Obama. Obama’s energy policy provides easy-to-understand bullet points that are absent necessary detail, implying that the candidate and his advisors have not really done considerable thinking about how to address global climate change. Moreover, the lack of detail combined with the prominence of the term green house gas emissions (as the only cause of global warming) in the energy policy seems to indicate that no further scientific inquiry will drive the Obama plan.

Advantage: McCain. McCain’s climate policy is much more detailed and seeks scientific answers for setting acceptable levels of greenhouse gases. Presumably, a science-based approach would include a development of an extensive understanding of the degree to which greenhouse gases have played and will continue to play a role in global climate change. Both candidates’ websites offer press releases with praises of their respective policies relative to climate change, but only Senator McCain has articulated a point of departure for building a comprehensive solution to the problem of global climate change.

References

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/1F8B2869-689E-4E79-BFB4-C20CF1A47297.htm

Monday, September 8, 2008

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes
  • Misleading Graphs
  • Biased Data
  • No Margin of Error [reported]
  • Non-random Samples
  • Missing Sample Sizes (i.e., not reported)
  • Misinterpreted Correlations
  • Confounding Variables (i.e., outside influences not discussed)
  • Botched Numbers
  • Selectively Reporting Results
  • The Almighty Anecdote
Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

  • Target Population Well Defined
  • Sample Matches the Target Population
  • Sample is Randomly Selected
  • Sample Size is Large Enough
  • Good Follow-Up Minimizes Non-Response
  • Type of Survey Used is Appropriate
  • Questions are Well Worded
  • Survey is Properly Timed
  • Survey Personnel are Well Trained
  • Survey Answers the Original Question

Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Research on Beliefs about Global Climate Change / Al Gore

I would appreciate your help with an academic survey of beliefs about Al Gore and Global Climate Change.

It does not matter if you are a believer in global warming or a skeptic of global warming.

Here's the survey link:

http://www.geocities.com/dawagnersjca/short.html

Be sure to read the notice on the first page.

Thanks for your help. Please let me know if you have any questions.