Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

The importance of the public opinion survey / poll has gained prominence in presidential races, because of the economy and efficiency of mass opinion polling over the telephone and the Internet. For example, with a relatively small sample size of just under 400 randomly selected participants one can gain a reasonable understanding of the opinions of up to 1,000,000 persons, within a margin of error. The miracle of statistical inference.

A sample of approximately 1,500 randomly drawn individuals may be projectable across the entire nation. The implications are clear. An unscrupulous candidate, who strongly desires to be elected, may communicate only those messages that increase his/her favorable ratings in the polls. On the other hand, a candidate with integrity may use the pollster to determine those messages springing from his/her political ideology that need fine tuning to appeal to the largest group of voters.

Appealing to the largest group of voters is similar in concept to the responsiveness that all politicians in a majoritarian form of democracy must face. Public opinion polling should be used only by politicians and news organizations to gain a better understanding of their audience, but polls alone should not be considered news and should not be reported in a way that will shape public opinion. Is that too much to ask? Is that unrealistic? Perhaps.

In sum, honest and disingenuous politicians alike, and news organizations with a specific agenda, may find the pollster an indispensable member of the team, but their is a societal cost.

Reference

Janda, K., Berry, J.M., & Goldman, J. (1995) The challenge of democracy: Government in America, (4th Ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.