Broadcast News Media Research Indicated Bias for Senator Barack Obama

A broadcast news media study by the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University found that coverage during the 2008 U.S. Presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama was 65% positive, but coverage of Senator John McCain was only 36% positive.

According to the study by researchers at George Mason University, there was a documented media bias for Obama and against McCain. Did the bias influence voters? I don't know. Was the study relevant news that was largely ignored. I don't know.

The link below has the details. Judge for yourselves...

Source: http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_10_30_08.htm

Additional References: Pew Charitable Trust Study of Print Media: "The media coverage of the race for president has not so much cast Barack Obama in a favorable light as it has portrayed John McCain in a substantially negative one, according to a new study of the media since the two national political conventions ended."

Source: http://journalism.org/node/13307

References

The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_10_30_08.htm

Pew Charitable Trusts Excellence in Journalism, http://journalism.org/node/13307

Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

Unwelcome Effects of Public Opinion Research

The importance of the public opinion survey / poll has gained prominence in presidential races, because of the economy and efficiency of mass opinion polling over the telephone and the Internet. For example, with a relatively small sample size of just under 400 randomly selected participants one can gain a reasonable understanding of the opinions of up to 1,000,000 persons, within a margin of error. The miracle of statistical inference.

A sample of approximately 1,500 randomly drawn individuals may be projectable across the entire nation. The implications are clear. An unscrupulous candidate, who strongly desires to be elected, may communicate only those messages that increase his/her favorable ratings in the polls. On the other hand, a candidate with integrity may use the pollster to determine those messages springing from his/her political ideology that need fine tuning to appeal to the largest group of voters.

Appealing to the largest group of voters is similar in concept to the responsiveness that all politicians in a majoritarian form of democracy must face. Public opinion polling should be used only by politicians and news organizations to gain a better understanding of their audience, but polls alone should not be considered news and should not be reported in a way that will shape public opinion. Is that too much to ask? Is that unrealistic? Perhaps.

In sum, honest and disingenuous politicians alike, and news organizations with a specific agenda, may find the pollster an indispensable member of the team, but their is a societal cost.

Reference

Janda, K., Berry, J.M., & Goldman, J. (1995) The challenge of democracy: Government in America, (4th Ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.

The Global Climate Change Presidency

The Global Climate Change Presidency

The next U.S. President could have significant impact on global climate change, yet Senator Obama’s policy is more about energy. Senator McCain’s policy addresses the larger scope of global climate change.

My personal research is relevant to the presidential candidates’ energy and climate change policies, because the two candidates seem to have vastly different understandings of climate change and potential underlying causes of change. (The research is on beliefs about climate change and I am looking for always looking for additional participants: http://www.geocities.com/dawagnersjca/short.html .) Advertising not withstanding, I’ve been thinking a great deal about global warming.

Some voters are not convinced that global warming is occurring. Others believe strongly that global warming is occurring. Those who believe strongly in global warming are not in agreement about the cause. Some attribute the warming to human activity (i.e., anthropogenic). Still others who believe in global warming are split among a variety natural causes, such as solar radiation due to sunspots, etc.

The Obama campaign has no clearly stated policy on global warming; There is no discernable action plan relative to what the Obama / Biden ticket will do to tackle this extremely important issue. Instead, Obama’s energy plan makes vague reference to reducing greenhouse gases.

On the other hand, the McCain campaign has published a clear statement on climate change policy, albeit brief. Like the Obama plan, the McCain plan presupposes that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. Unlike Obama, McCain provides extensive detail about how a market-based cap and trade policy will encourage an overall lowering of greenhouse gases.

Double-fault: Obama. Obama’s energy policy provides easy-to-understand bullet points that are absent necessary detail, implying that the candidate and his advisors have not really done considerable thinking about how to address global climate change. Moreover, the lack of detail combined with the prominence of the term green house gas emissions (as the only cause of global warming) in the energy policy seems to indicate that no further scientific inquiry will drive the Obama plan.

Advantage: McCain. McCain’s climate policy is much more detailed and seeks scientific answers for setting acceptable levels of greenhouse gases. Presumably, a science-based approach would include a development of an extensive understanding of the degree to which greenhouse gases have played and will continue to play a role in global climate change. Both candidates’ websites offer press releases with praises of their respective policies relative to climate change, but only Senator McCain has articulated a point of departure for building a comprehensive solution to the problem of global climate change.

References

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/1F8B2869-689E-4E79-BFB4-C20CF1A47297.htm

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes

Rumsey's Ten Common Statistical Mistakes

• Misleading Graphs
• Biased Data
• No Margin of Error [reported]
• Non-random Samples
• Missing Sample Sizes (i.e., not reported)
• Misinterpreted Correlations
• Confounding Variables (i.e., outside influences not discussed)
• Botched Numbers
• Selectively Reporting Results
• The Almighty Anecdote
  

Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

Rumsey's Ten Criteria for a Good Survey

• Target Population Well Defined
• Sample Matches the Target Population
• Sample is Randomly Selected
• Sample Size is Large Enough
• Good Follow-Up Minimizes Non-Response
• Type of Survey Used is Appropriate
• Questions are Well Worded
• Survey is Properly Timed
• Survey Personnel are Well Trained
• Survey Answers the Original Question
  

Reference

Rumsey, D. (2003). Statistics for dummies. New York: Wiley.

Research on Beliefs about Global Climate Change / Al Gore

I would appreciate your help with an academic survey of beliefs about Al Gore and Global Climate Change.

It does not matter if you are a believer in global warming or a skeptic of global warming.

Here's the survey link:

http://www.geocities.com/dawagnersjca/short.html

Be sure to read the notice on the first page.

Thanks for your help. Please let me know if you have any questions.

Spoiler Candidacies Revisited

H. Ross Perot, a successful businessman, mounted an interesting but unsuccessful bid for the Presidency of the United States in 1992 under the banner of the Reform Party. Perot garnered 19 percent of the popular vote but failed to carry the electoral votes from any state. The influence of the Reform party is atypical among American political parties though, with most having far less popular support.

Third parties or minority parties have historically been one of four types (Janda, Berry, & Goldman, 1995): (1) Bolter parties splitting from the Democratic or Republican parties; (2) Farmer-labor parties representing working class individuals who feel they are not getting their fair share; (3) Ideological protest parties criticizing the established system; (4) Single issue parties seeking to promote an issue rather than new government philosophy.

Most American voters are loyal to either the Republican or Democratic parties, making it virtually impossible for an third, minority party candidate to win. Notwithstanding, third party movements such as Perot’s Reform party provide a means of expression for potential voters who are disenchanted with either major party. Moreover, expression of alternate platforms and agenda for government policymaking is what third-parties do best.

The Reform Party, which was essentially an ideological protest party, affected the platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties by drawing attention to important, overlooked issues such as the need for a balanced budget and ending government waste. In the future, third party platforms such as the Reform party will continue to have populist influence on the two major parties. Other important third-party challenges can be found in the Constitution, Libertarian, and Green parties.

Reference

Janda, K., Berry, J.M., & Goldman, J. (1995) The challenge of democracy: Government in America, (4th Ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.